2026 Emmy Predictions

The 78th annual Emmy Awards air this coming Monday, September 14th at 8pm ET on NBC and Peacock. The primetime ceremony will be hosted by TV queen, icon, & legend Mariska Hargitay. As a TV lover, this is one of my favorite ceremonies of the year. There were two nights of awards that took place this past weekend where statues were handed out for creative arts categories. Read on for my predictions and commentary on the first two nights of awards.

A Quick Creative Arts Emmys Recap

The big winners from the 2 nights of Creative Arts Emmy awards were:

• Widow's Bay (8) - duh, it's amazing
• DTF St. Louis (6) - a bit surprising, it had good buzz when it aired, but didn't seem to leave as big of an impression as some of this year's top contenders
• The Pitt (4) - continues to be a Hollywood darling

Other major successes came for The Late Show With Stephen Colbert and Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show.

I think it's important to touch on these wins as they can give us an idea of how the Television Academy members are thinking and what is slated to do well during the Primetime ceremony. A full list of winners & nominees can be found here.

Lead Actor, Comedy

• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Wonder Man
• Steve Carell, Rooster
• Matthew Rhys, Widow's Bay
• Jason Segel, Shrinking
• Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Given the excitement around the show, and its success in the Creative Arts Emmys, I think this is Matthew Rhys's award to lose!

Who Should Win: Matthew Rhys
Who Will Win: Matthew Rhys

Lead Actor, Drama

• Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
• Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
• Mark Ruffalo, Task
• Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat
• Noah Wyle, The Pitt

Mark Ruffalo absolutely deserves to win this award. He is incredible in Task, and it's a fantastic show. However, given how Hollywood is reacting to Mark's constant advocacy for Palestine, and their love for The Pitt, I can see it going to Noah Wyle.

Who Should Win: Mark Ruffalo
Who Will Win: Noah Wyle

Lead Actor, Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Riz Ahmed, Bait
• Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit
• Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
• Oscar Isaac, Beef
• Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me

Admittedly, I haven't really watched any of these shows. I started Bait (and need to finish) and one episode of The Beast in Me (wasn't for me). Based on discussions I've seen online and my expectation that Matthew Rhys will be awarded for Widow's Bay, Charlie Hunnam is my winner pick for this category.

Who Should Win: Riz Ahmed (honestly idk, but I like him 😄)
Who Will Win: Charlie Hunnam

Lead Actress, Comedy

• Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
• Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
• Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Troubles
• Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
• Jean Smart, Hacks

There's a possibility that Elle Fanning could sneak in here and win (Margo did win 3 Creative Arts awards), but I think this is pretty much a two-woman race between Lisa Kudrow and Jean Smart. For Kudrow this would serve as a lifetime achievement recognition, while for Smart it would be honoring her last season on Hacks.

Who Should Win: Lisa Kudrow or Jean Smart
Who Will Win: Jean Smart

Lead Actress, Drama

• Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
• Chase Infiniti, The Testaments
• Keri Russell, The Diplomat
• Rhea Seahorn, Pluribus
• Zendaya, Euphoria

I'm not quite sure what to make of this race. On the one hand, you have Zendaya, who has won the Emmy for this role twice already, so she may be rewarded for the final season. On the other hand, Rhea Seahorn has long been celebrated for her work on Better Call Saul, and seems to be generally well-liked within the industry. I think the Television Academy voters are likely to award her here, especially given that season 3 of Euphoria was uneven at best, and Pluribus had such a strong debut.

Who Should Win: Rhea Seahorn
Who Will Win: Rhea Seahorn

Lead Actress, Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Claire Danes, The Beast in Me
• Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures
• Carey Mulligan, Beef
• Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette
• Sarah Snook, All Her Fault

This is another category where I don't have a ton of insight. The Beast in Me was pretty well received, so I can see Claire Danes taking it. On the other hand, Remarkably Bright Creatures has already won Outstanding TV Movie, so it's possible that Sally Field could win. And we can't count out Sarah Pidgeon considering she CARRIED that show, and had all the West Village girlies wearing Calvin Klein, smoking cigs, and flipping their hair.

Who Should Win: Idk but let's say Sarah Pidgeon
Who Will Win: Claire Danes

Supporting Actor, Comedy

• Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
• Paul W. Downs, Hacks
• Harrison Ford, Shrinking
• Nick Offerman, Margo's Got Money Troubles
• Stephen Root, Widow's Bay
• Michael Urie, Shrinking
• Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

This is a very crowded category that can go in many different directions. I think that given Widow's Bay has so much momentum, Stephen Root will take this one, especially considering his proven track record as a character actor.

Who Should Win: Stephen Root
Who Will Win: Stephen Root

Supporting Actor, Drama

• Patrick Ball, The Pitt
• Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
• Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt
• Gerran Howell, The Pitt
• Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
• Tom Pelphrey, Task
• Carlos-Manuel Vesga, Pluribus

While Shawn Hatosy is a fan favorite on The Pitt, I can see all of those guys cancelling each other out. Although Vesga and his performance in Pluribus have been lauded, in my mind, no one gave a stronger or more powerful performance than Tom Pelphrey in Task.

Who Should Win: Tom Pelphrey
Who Will Win: Tom Pelphrey

Supporting Actress, Comedy

• Dale Dickey, Widow's Bay
• Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
• Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
• Kate O'Flynn, Widow's Bay
• Michelle Pfeiffer, Margo's Got Money Troubles
• Megan Stalter, Hacks
• Jessica Williams, Shrinking

Another jam packed category, another tough category that can go a few different ways. It was a delightful surprise to see Dale Dickey be nominated, and nice that Hannah and Megan were recognized for the last season of Hacks. However, after just one season (probably more like four episodes really), Kate O'Flynn has cemented Patricia from Widow's Bay in the pantheon of iconic television characters.

Who Should Win: Kate O'Flynn
Who Will Win: Kate O'Flynn

Supporting Actress, Drama

• Taylor Dearden, The Pitt
• Fiona Dourif, The Pitt
• Allison Janney, The Diplomat
• Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
• Sepideh Moafi, The Pitt
• Julianne Nicholson, Paradise
• Karolina Wydra, Pluribus

I wish they'd stop putting so many actors in these categories. I understand that there are a lot of great performances that need to be recognized, but at some point enough is enough! I'd narrow this down to Katherine LaNasa (she won last year), Allison Janney, and Karolina Wydra. I think they'll probably award Pluribus in other categories, which leaves us with two and I'm quite torn.

Who Should Win: Allison Janney or Katherine LaNasa
Who Will Win: Katherine LaNasa

Directing for a Comedy Series

• Lucia Aniello, Hacks
• Mary Lou Belli, The Ms. Pat Show
• Randall Einhorn, Abbott Elementary
• Hiro Murai, Widow's Bay
• Cristopher Storer, The Bear
• Andrew DeYoung, The Chair Company

This is another category where I don't have a ton of insight. Again, given the number of awards Widow's Bay took home last weekend, I'll lean that way.

Who Should Win: Hiro Murai or Lucia Aniello
Who Will Win: Hiro Murai

Directing for a Drama Series

• Salli Richardson Whitfield, The Gilded Age
• Hanelle M. Culpepper, Paradise
• Noah Wyle, The Pitt
• Vince Gilligan, Pluribus
• Saul Metzstein, Slow Horses
• Salli Richardson Whitfield, Task

Once again, not a lot of thoughts here, other than apparently Salli Richardson Whitfield IS that girl! This could go a few different ways - The Pitt or Slow Horses could sneak in there, but I think it will go to Vince Gilligan.

Who Should Win: Salli Richardson Whitfield apparently lol
Who Will Win: Vince Gilligan

Writing for a Comedy Series

• Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
• Tim Robinson and Zach Kanin, The Chair Company
• Michael Patrick King and Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
• Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky, Hacks
• Anthony King, Jury Duty Presents Company Retreat
• Katie Dippold, Widow's Bay

Another stacked category with a lot of worthy winners. Not sure if they'll give the nod to The Comeback here or in lead actress. It's also possible could reward Hacks for its final season here instead of the acting categories. If you're still with me in these predictions, you know that I think this is Widow's Bay's year.

Who Should Win: Lucia, Paul, & Jen or Katie Dippold
Who Will Win: Katie Dippold

Writing for a Drama Series

• Peter Ackerman and Debora Cahn, The Diplomat
• Kirsten Pierre-Geyfman and R. Scott Gemmill, The Pitt
• Valerie Chu, The Pitt
• Vince Gilligan, Pluribus
• Will Smith, Slow Horses
• Brad Ingelsby, Task

Hard to say what's going to happen here. All of these are great shows and would be deserving of the win. I'd narrow down to Pluribus, Task, and Slow Horses, which always seems to win an award.

Who Should Win: Brad Ingelsby
Who Will Win: Vince Gilligan

Reality TV, Competition

• Dancing With the Stars
• RuPaul's Drag Race
• Survivor
• Top Chef
• The Traitors

A lot of familiar faces in this category. Alan Cumming did already win for Outstanding Reality TV Host, so there's a good chance Traitors takes this as well. However, DWTS had record ratings last year and Survivor aired its 50th season so TV might want to celebrate itself.

Who Should Win: The Traitors
Who Will Win: The Traitors

Variety Series

• The Daily Show
• Jimmy Kimmel Live!
• Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
• The Late Show With Stephen Colbert
• Saturday Night Live

Even though John Oliver has dominated this category in recent years, I can't see this going to anyone other than Colbert.

Who Should Win: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
Who Will Win: The Late Show With Stephen Colbert

Limited or Anthology Series

• All Her Fault
• The Beast in Me
• Beef
• DTF St. Louis
• Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette

For the show categories I'll touch on all of the nominees. All Her Fault is glad to be nominated hahaha. Love Story started strong but fell off in the second half of the season. Beef's second season was not as well received or widely watched as its first. The Beast in Me was strong, but I don't think it's going to beat DTF St. Louis, which has already won 6 awards.

Who Should Win: DTF St. Louis
Who Will Win: DTF St. Louis

Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Margo's Got Money Troubles
• Nobody Wants This
• Only Murders in the Building
• Shrinking
• Widow's Bay

Abbott Elementary continues to be very funny and is here for network representation. The Bear is not a comedy #categoryfraud. I haven't seen Margo's Got Money Troubles, but hear it is quite good. I'm not sure how many people still actually want Nobody Wants This. I skipped the latest season of Only Murders and feel I have missed absolutely nothing. Shrinking and Hacks had excellent seasons, but once again, they're not beating Widow's Bay, which is hands down one of the best shows on television across the board right now.

Who Should Win: Widow's Bay
Who Will Win: Widow's Bay

Drama Series

• The Diplomat
• The Gilded Age
• A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
• Paradise
• The Pitt
• Pluribus
• Slow Horses
• Your Friends & Neighbors

I had been sleeping on The Diplomat, but I recently caught up and it is very good. I'm still sleeping on The Gilded Age, but hope to catch up ahead of season 4. I watched only one episode of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms - I think I have Game of Thrones fatigue. The second seasons of both Paradise and The Pitt were not as strong as their firsts. I'd say the same about Your Friends & Neighbors, but I did not feel compelled to watch it. This leaves us with Slow Horses and Pluribus, which are two Apple TV shows. I think it'll go to Pluribus.

Who Should Win: Slow Horses or Pluribus
Who Will Win: Pluribus

Whew! I know that was a lot, but if you made it to the end, congratulations and thank you! I hope that I'm right about all of my picks, but I'm happy to be wrong, especially if it means there are some unexpected and more diverse winners.

I hope that you have a great weekend and enjoy the Primetime Emmy ceremony on Monday. Let me know what your favorite shows have been and who you're rooting for in the comments. I hope you'll be back here to breakdown everything that happened.